5.3 Understanding, Anticipating and Predicting Crime Trends
How can different sources of information be brought together to improve BTP’s understanding of emerging crime patterns and risks? What early signals or wider social and environmental factors might indicate a shift towards more serious or organised criminal activity on the railway? How can these insights be used to inform proportionate, ethical and cost‑effective prevention strategies over time, while respecting privacy, strengthening governance and avoiding bias?
Background
Next steps
If you are interested in hearing more about any of these research areas, please email [email protected]. Alternatively, you can submit a collaboration proposal via our online form: https://forms.office.com/e/XYJUkkZBRD.
Find our Force strategy here: https://btpa.police.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/E03581188_BTPA_Strategic-Plan-2026-2029_Accessible.pdf
Topics
Related UKRI funded projects
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Predictive analytics and Policing: Translating cutting-edge academic research into actionable intelligence and developing useable software tools
Summary Criminological research has for some time focused on the types of people that commit crime and why they might do so. However, over the last decade, there has been substantial progress in research concerned with ...
Funded by: ESRC
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Why might this be relevant?
The project focuses on predictive analytics in policing, which can help improve understanding of emerging crime patterns and risks.
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Re-counting crime: New methods to improve the accuracy of estimates of crime
There is probably no other scientific endeavour more relevant to the field of Criminology than to count crime accurately. Crime estimates are central to policy. They are used in the allocation of police resources, and mo...
Funded by: ESRC
Lead research organisation: University of Surrey
Why might this be relevant?
The project aims to improve the accuracy of crime estimates, which is related to understanding crime patterns and risks.
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Data assimilation and forecasting for urban crime models
In recent years, a great deal of research activities associated with big data analytics of crime events and crime patterns has greatly expanded and been increasingly received attentions from practitioners and government ...
Funded by: EPSRC
Lead research organisation: University of Surrey
Why might this be relevant?
The project focuses on data assimilation and forecasting for urban crime models, which can contribute to understanding crime patterns and risks.