Productivity: What are the possible direct and indirect productivity impacts of AI?
Background
"In the National AI Strategy, the government made commitments to enrich our understanding of AI as it impacts the economy and society more broadly. Additionally, we recently launched a steering board chaired by the heads of both the government analysis and scientific functions, to ensure cohesive cross government approaches to understanding AI impacts. An overview of the high-level questions we are asking in this regard are outlined in the section below. (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-aistrategy)
Some priority work we are currently developing to meet these commitments include:
An analysis of the AI White Paper consultation to feed into the formal consultation response. This will allow us to take on feedback from the public and various key players in sectors across the economy, and better tailor policy interventions to support strategic AI aims.
Establishing the AI Safety Institute to advance the world’s knowledge of AI safety by carefully examining, evaluating, and testing new frontier AI systems. The Institute will conduct fundamental research on how to keep people safe in the face of fast and unpredictable progress in AI, improving our understanding of the capabilities and risks of AI systems.
A monitoring and evaluation framework for AI regulatory interventions in tandem with the AI regulatory white paper. This will develop our understanding of key metrics to monitor with regards to Ai governance and ecosystem impacts.
Research into the AI sector and supply. Updating the AI Sector Study to establish a consistent and comparable set of economic indicators for the AI sector in terms of producers and suppliers. This study helps us to best understand where the AI sector needs support, to grow sovereign capability of the UK in AI, in alignment with strategic priorities.
The development of a cross-economy national AI risk register. Developed in tandem with a responsibility register that garnered cross Whitehall agreement on which departments hold which risks with regards to AI. The risk register will provide a single source of truth on AI risks which regulators, government departments, and external groups can use to prioritise further action.
Further research into Compute and the best ways to leverage compute to support the AI sector. This will be key to informing our response to the future of compute review and maximising the £1 billion+ investments in state-of-the-art compute."
As AI technology advances, it may be possible to continue to automate an increasing number of human tasks. A research interest would be to understand the task breakdown of the UK labour market by sector and geography. Building on this, some scenario modelling (i.e. under different levels of AI capability) could be undertaken to test the extent to which jobs are likely to be lost.
Next steps
If you are keen to register your interest in working and connecting with DSIT Science, Innovation, and Research Directorate, and/or submitting evidence, then please complete the DSIT-ARI Evidence survey - https://dsit.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_cDfmK2OukVAnirs
Link to ARI Document : https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/department-for-science-innovation-and-technology-areas-of-research-interest/dsit-areas-of-research-interest-2024
Topics
Related UKRI funded projects
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Queen's University Belfast NISRA BDR Programme
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Why might this be relevant?
The project specifically focuses on understanding how digitalization affects productivity and employment dynamics, which directly addresses the question about productivity impacts of AI.
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BridgeAI - Sector Capabilities ATI Direct Award
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Partially relevant as it focuses on accelerating AI adoption in sectors, but does not specifically address productivity impacts.
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ELIAS: European Lighthouse of AI for Sustainability
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Why might this be relevant?
Not relevant as it focuses on AI for sustainability and societal concerns, not directly related to productivity impacts.