How should the predictive accuracy of CGE models be assessed?
Background
DIT is committed to using evidence and analysis to maximise the economic value of our programme of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. Methods, modelling and measurement of trade agreements is an evolving area of research, while future evidence may include investigation into impacts of new and modernising provisions in trade agreements.
The data, statistics and measurement questions on trade agreements are:
Next steps
Get in touch with ari.comment@go-science.gov.uk
Source
This question was published as part of the set of ARIs in this document:
Related UKRI funded projects
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Machine Learning in International Trade Research - Evaluating the Impact of Trade Agreements
International trade is of vital importance for modern economies, and governments around the world try to shape their countries' exports and imports through numerous interventions. Given the problems facing trade negotiat...
Funded by: ESRC
Why might this be relevant?
The project specifically addresses the question by proposing to use machine learning methods to evaluate the predictive accuracy of CGE models in the context of trade agreements.
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Aggregation in Gravity-Based Estimation: Theory, Evidence and Policy Implications
International trade forms a vital part of modern economies. Likewise, many aspects of government policy are directed towards influencing international trade. For instance, governments may join trade agreements, enter cur...
Funded by: ESRC
Why might this be relevant?
The project aims to shed light on how aggregation affects estimates in gravity estimation, which is relevant to understanding the measurement of trade agreements. However, it does not directly address the question of how to assess the predictive accuracy of CGE models.
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UK in a Changing Europe Fellowship
What types of trade agreements should the UK join post-Brexit? The world trading system, comprised of multilateral, mega-regional, and bilateral trade agreements offers multiple paths forward for the future of UK trade. ...
Funded by: ESRC
Why might this be relevant?
The project focuses on understanding how individual firm responses to government policy and international agreements aggregate to global trade flows, which is relevant to understanding the measurement of trade agreements. However, it does not directly address the question of how to assess the predictive accuracy of CGE models.