How should the predictive accuracy of CGE models be assessed?

Background

DIT is committed to using evidence and analysis to maximise the economic value of our programme of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. Methods, modelling and measurement of trade agreements is an evolving area of research, while future evidence may include investigation into impacts of new and modernising provisions in trade agreements.

The data, statistics and measurement questions on trade agreements are:

Next steps

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Source

This question was published as part of the set of ARIs in this document:

DIT Areas of research interest 2020 to 2021 GOVUK

Related UKRI funded projects


  • Machine Learning in International Trade Research - Evaluating the Impact of Trade Agreements

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    Funded by: ESRC

    Lead research organisation: University of Surrey

    Why might this be relevant?

    The project specifically addresses the question by proposing to use machine learning methods to evaluate the predictive accuracy of CGE models in the context of trade agreements.

  • Aggregation in Gravity-Based Estimation: Theory, Evidence and Policy Implications

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    Why might this be relevant?

    The project aims to shed light on how aggregation affects estimates in gravity estimation, which is relevant to understanding the measurement of trade agreements. However, it does not directly address the question of how to assess the predictive accuracy of CGE models.

  • UK in a Changing Europe Fellowship

    What types of trade agreements should the UK join post-Brexit? The world trading system, comprised of multilateral, mega-regional, and bilateral trade agreements offers multiple paths forward for the future of UK trade. ...

    Funded by: ESRC

    Lead research organisation: University of Cambridge

    Why might this be relevant?

    The project focuses on understanding how individual firm responses to government policy and international agreements aggregate to global trade flows, which is relevant to understanding the measurement of trade agreements. However, it does not directly address the question of how to assess the predictive accuracy of CGE models.

  • MultiLateral Thinking - Coriolis Technologies

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